Evaluation of Short
term forecast of Timber price in Chhattisgarh.
D.P. Singh1, Deepak Kumar2, S.K.
Yadaw3, and Alok Shrivastava4
1S.G. College of
Agriculture and Research station Jagdalpur, Indira Gandhi Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Raipur
2Department of Soil
Science, College of Agriculture, Indira Gandhi Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Raipur
3Department of
Agricultural Extension, College of Agriculture, Indira
Gandhi Krishi Vishwavidyalaya,
Raipur
4College of dairy
Technology, Raipur, Indira Gandhi Krishi
Vishwavidyalaya, Raipur
ABSTRACT
Trend and forecasting
equation for timber price on the basis of regression factor were designed for
each forest circle. Grade wise of timber price and its comparison with
different species were also calculated. For fitting of trend and short tern
forecasting of various timber price data for Teak , Sal , Bija
, Shisham , Khamhar , Saja and Dhawra species were
collected from each forest circle of forest department of Chhattisgarh . The data
were collected for a period emergence of new state Chhattisgarh i.e. from 2001
to 2005. The analysis was done for circle wise, grade wise and state level
records. The best fitted trends and forecast was observed for Kanker followed by Sarguja and Bilaspur circle, where as positive trends and forecast was
observed.
INTRODUCTION:
Forest provides a wide
range of goods and various ecological services to us. They are rich source of
biodiversity. A large number of poor tribal people living in and around the
forest areas depend mainly on these forests for their livelihood. The human and
animal both are directly or indirectly depends on natural resources for their
daily requirement energy in term of food and fuel. India has a recorded forest
area of 76.52 million hectares that is 23.28 per cent of its total geographical
area. The ownership of these forest areas rests largely with the government. It
is estimates that 92.47 percent of the recorded forest area is owned by the
forest departments, 3.18 percent by other government departments, 2.45 percent
by corporate bodies, and 1.91 percent by others (Sagreiya
1994). Presently the forest area divided into six-forest circle viz., Raipur, Bilaspur, Surguja, Durg, Kanker and Jagdalpur. The Chhattisgarh has 16 districts. The state has
three agro climatic zones, viz., Chhattisgarh plains, Bastar
plateau and Northern Hill Region spreading over a total geographical area of
13.602 million hectare, forest occupies almost 1.85 million ha.
MATERIAL AND METHOD:
The data for present
investigation were taken from the seven major species maintained at all forest
circle of forest department of Chhattisgarh. The secondary data on timber price
(Rs.) of major timber species of Chhattisgarh were collected circle wise for
whole state. For the study timber price data of seven species were collected
for the period 2001-2005 i.e., from the emergence of new state. The data set
recorded was classified into girth wise, length wise and grade wise. Four girth
classes viz. 51-60, 61-75, 76-105, 106-120 cms and
four length classes (0-2m, 2-3m, 3-5 up-5) were categorized into five grades
(grade 1 to grade 5). Least square technique was adopted to observe price
trend. The model used was
1st
Linear regression model
2nd
degree parabolic regression model
For
testing of significance of regression coefficient, ‘t’
test was carried out using the following formula:
t =
with n-2 degree of freedom
Where 
= Estimated value of
= Standard error of
RESULT AND DISCUSSION:
Forecasting
equation for Chhattisgarh forest circle
Short
term forecasting analysis carried out for major seven timber species of
Chhattisgarh. All the forest circle of Chhattisgarh analyzed along with the
circle wise and state as a whole have been included for description of results.
Performance of each circle of the seven species has been described in terms of
trend and short term forecasting by least square technique. Estimated forecast
income for all forest circles of Chhattisgarh is presented Table (1) best
fitted forecasting equation for different species for Teak (Tectona
grandis) were estimated among best followed by Dhawra (Anogeissus latifolia) and Saja (Terminelia tomentosa).
Table 1. Short
term forecast of income (Rs) through different species for next two years
|
Species
|
Year
|
|
2006
|
2007
|
|
Teak
|
3058930
|
3157820
|
|
Sal
|
682110
|
687300
|
|
Bija
|
888645
|
952580
|
|
Shisham
|
1297220
|
1363410
|
|
Khamhar
|
599935
|
620260
|
|
Saja
|
494710
|
506340
|
|
Dhawra
|
467270
|
494580
|
The critical study of tables revealed that
regression coefficients were highly significant (P<0.01) for Teak (Tectona grandis)
while Shisham (Dalbergia
sissoo), Saja (Terminelia tomentosa)
and Dhawra (Anogeissus latifolia) species were significant at 5%. Highest R2
(94.51%) was obtained for Teak followed by Dhawra
(86.41%) while lowest R2 was obtained for Sal (Shorea
robusta) (51.51%).
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